Industry Voice: Does US yield curve inversion equal recession?
Tomasz Wiedelak, International Economist, T.Rowe Price
17 December 2019
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1 min read
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Conventional wisdom suggests that US recessions usually follow an inverted yield curve. Given that the US yield curve has once again inverted, should we assume that a recession is on its way?
This year alone, markets have absorbed geopolitical conflict, volatile energy prices, fiscal concerns, changing expectations for central banks and persistent questions over whether AI is fueling a productivity revolution, or the next bubble.