Proceed with caution: Is economic bounce-back being over-promoted?

How not to get carried away with post-Covid outlook

Latest GDP figures suggest the UK's hoped-for rebound one year on from its first Covid lockdown is on track – but new research questions exuberant projections about consumer spending once restrictions are lifted, amid emerging problems further around the globe.

Growth data for January, released last month, showed GDP fell 2.9% due to the impact of lockdown three, but this was far better than the 5% tumble the City feared. Consequently, the OECD has increased its UK growth forecast for the year from 4.2% to 5.1%.  "Having suffered a lockdown during Q1 2021, the UK may enjoy a more rapid and stronger economic rebound than most other countries during the rest of the year," said Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco. Brexit fallout However, there are a number of caveats. Firstly, the consequences of Brexit. Sp...