What the US bond market really means for equities

Views on US equities seem to neatly fall into two camps.

One group sees the US bond market and yield curve inversion as a sign of an upcoming recession. Market Movers Blog: S&P 500 rises as China strikes conciliatory tone The other looks at US domestic data, which argues the softness in manufacturing data stems more from trade war impacts than the fundamental health of the economy. In our view, the bond market signals more about central bank expectations for additional monetary accommodation, and less in terms of the performance of the domestic US economy, where the latest employment and consumer spending data remains supportive. We w...