We are increasingly hopeful of a pick up in global growth in 2013. Developments in the US should mean the next upswing will be more sustainable. The Fed has committed to maintaining loose monetary policy long into the upturn, even if this causes inflation to overshoot their target.
OECD leading indicators are also starting to turn upwards. These indicators are intended to give early signals of the turning points in economic activity and are used by economists, businesses and policy makers to analyse the current and short-term economic situation. Their upward trajectory is a positive signal for equities versus bonds as it suggests a turning point in the business cycle. We have become more positive on equities, using market weakness to move to an overweight position in multi-asset funds. Despite cautious investor sentiment, we see good long-term potential in equities...
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