Credit bull run could last for years

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Looking ahead, we believe the world economy is at a crossroads...

In the US, for example, 60% of the increase in GDP since the recovery began has come from the re-building of inventories. Now inventories are at a desired level, we believe it is likely this boost to growth has run its course and one of the other drivers of expenditure will have to push the economy forward. However, the options here are limited as these drivers are household consumption, investment, net trade or government expenditure. The likelihood is growth in the second half of the year could be slower, as each of these variables is likely to be constrained. We believe it is this cha...