The ‘feel better factor' is a strong positive for the US. The winter is over and has been very mild, the sun has been shining and the Dow is close to its 2007 high, while the Nasdaq is above its 2007 high.
The US recovery remains on track supported by a strengthening in employment. The last payroll figure showed that payrolls were twice as strong as had been forecast and November and December figures were revised upwards. The unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3% and is expected to fall further. The correlation between the incumbent being re-elected, the employment figures and the gasoline price is very high. Hence, in an election year it is to be expected that everything will be done to try to keep these two factors as low as practicable. Restaurants and retail seem to be picking up a...
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