'Stop and go' recovery

ON THE US

Although US economic data remains decidedly mixed, the recovery seems to be proceeding albeit slowly. The downward revision of first quarter GDP to 1.9% still falls within our expected range of growth.

We expect a continuation of this choppy ‘stop-and-go’ recovery: periods that look and feel like a recovery followed by those that feel more like a recession. The ‘Great Recession’ was far from a normal recession, so it is not surprising the recovery does not feel normal.  We expect high volatility in US equity market over the months to come, just as in the global equity markets as a whole.  Job growth numbers have shown a decline in recent months. The eurozone debt crisis and the potential for an Asian economic slowdown would also highly influence the course of US economic recovery. A...