Will the 'gilt trip' continue in 2015?

Gilts have continued to surprise the market with stellar returns, but should investors expect a sell-off this year?

Gilts were mostly viewed negatively by the market at the start of 2014. With US and UK 10-year rates both at 3%, the consensus was for a 50bps-75bps sell-off during the year. What actually happened was the opposite - and gilts returned approximately 15%. Roll on 2015 and gilts have continued in a similar vein. With yields once again at historic lows, this begs the question, will the negative consensus the market held in 2014 now hold true for 2015? Temporary disinflation The arguments for a rise in yields state even with lower trend growth in the UK, of say 2%-2.25%, alongside inf...