With the EU referendum just under a week away, Investment Week has been publishing the results from a series of polls involving panels of UK private investors, run by independent investment research specialist The Wisdom Council, in a bid to understand how a potential exit from Europe could impact their investments.
Chart 1
This week's poll examines how investors from different age groups believe a Brexit might affect them and whether the UK is better off outside the EU.
Among the younger generation, there has been overriding uncertainty, with nearly one-third of respondents in the 18-34 age bracket unsure how an exit might impact their investments. This figure has remained constant since February (see chart 1, right).
Half of respondents in this age group also feel a Brexit would have a negative impact on their investments, with only a very low percentage (3.6%) believing a departure would positively affect them.
According to the Wisdom Council, this rise in negative sentiment towards a Brexit indicates more investors in this age bracket now better understand their possible exposure to a potential UK exit from the EU.
Meanwhile, among the younger 'Generation X' members, those aged 35-44 years, there has been a consistent decline in both uncertainty and positive sentiment surrounding a Brexit since February (see chart 1, right).
In the latest poll, only 5% of those surveyed believe a Brexit would have a positive impact on their investments, while the majority of respondents who were unsure about the fallout in February (44%) has now decreased to just a quarter.
Interestingly, however, the number of respondents in this age bracket who believe the vote will have no effect at all on their investments has also increased and now accounts for around 30% of answers.
For those investors aged 45 and over, the trend is the reverse of their younger counterparts.
Since April, uncertainty among this group has increased significantly to almost 40%. The margin between those who feel a Brexit would negatively impact them and those who forecast it would be positive also remains fairly constant and quite narrow at about 30% and 11% respectively (see chart 2, right).
Chart 2
Generation gap
Despite the increasing negative sentiment on how Brexit will impact investor portfolios, the margin between the 'leave' and 'remain' camps has narrowed - although the rate at which the gap closes has fallen, suggesting respondents are becoming certain of their views and will be less easily swayed (see chart 2, right).
In a poll of all respondents, regardless of age, 38% believe the UK will be better off outside the EU versus 36% who do not.
For the younger millennial generation (aged 18-34 years), just 27% believe the UK would be better off outside the EU - a fall from 38% in February. Meanwhile, the 'remain' figure for this age group has stayed relatively constant at around 45%.
Among those investors aged 35-44 years, there has been more fluctuation in opinions over the last four months. The latest figures suggest investors in this age bracket are narrowly leaning towards an 'out' vote, but the level of those undecided has also increased since February, and accounts for a quarter of those surveyed.
This suggests many people still have not made up their minds and some may have retreated from their original positions.
In contrast, the latest poll for those aged 45 years and older shows the majority are overwhelming still pro-Brexit, with more than 45% of respondents stating they believe the UK would be better off outside the EU.
There has also been a rise in uncertainty, with many who believed in April the UK would be worse off alone, now undecided. This movement stands in contrast with younger participants' views.
