In the last of a special three-part Big Question, fund managers give their views on what Donald Trump's presidency may mean for markets and the global economy.
Giles Parkinson, manager of the Aviva Investors Global Equity Endurance fund
Understand the tangible
Consensus opinion prior to the presidential election was that Trump would not win, but if he did the consequences would be severe.
As it was, since 8 November market averages are higher: the Russell 2000 index of smaller US companies by 15%, the MSCI World index of larger worldwide businesses by 5%.
Was Trump the cause? Impossible to tell. Perhaps stocks were just too cheap and going up anyway. The MSCI had already risen by 18% from the February lows ahead of the vote.
The temptation is to construct a narrative around events and match the story to a decision ('investors too optimistic? Sell!'). Rather than attempting to forecast the outcomes of events and second-guess the actions of others, investors are better served by seeking to understand what can be understood.
Do I own a good (or improving) company? How confident am I that it will become a bigger business over time? And is the valuation at least reasonable?
Ignore narratives, answer the answerable, frequently do nothing, and the spectre of Trump will melt into the background.
Michael Sawh, senior investment manager at Parmenion
Pragmatism pays
This new presidential era, representing a radical departure from the ideological consensus that has governed US domestic and foreign policies since 9/11, has profound consequences for investors across the breadth of geopolitical, economic and social issues impacting the world's most powerful democratic nation.
Markets have been swift to price in expectations of higher spending as well as the prospect of accelerating corporate earnings in 2017, given surprisingly strong profit growth in the third quarter of last year.
The sustainability of this rally is questionable, given the potential for a more isolationist, militarily assertive and diplomatically unconventional regime to create space for unexpected disruption to world trade and investment flows.
On the other hand, a successful program of institutional, social and economic reformation, alongside the recalibration of global alliances (if carefully and somewhat miraculously executed), could underpin future cycles of stable growth.
We feel that both pragmatism and underlying economic fundamentals are likely to prevail as the US seeks to realign its fortunes under a controversial new Commander-in-Chief, with a fragile outlook for global growth placing a ceiling over the potential for prolonged optimism.
Daniel Steck, analyst and portfolio manager at REYL & Cie
Trump will make no difference
Today, we find it difficult to remember the fears that a potential Trump election were being raised just two months ago.
Since then, markets have turned extremely optimistic about the US economy for 2017 and beyond, thanks to a hoard of positive measures proposed by the future president, from tax cuts to increased infrastructure spending.
This complacency is not only visible in market performance, but also in confidence indicators that surged over the past few weeks.
In a context of stretched equity valuations, reaching levels unseen since the 2000 tech bubble, markets are almost definitely set for disappointment sometime this year. First, because investors have discounted a best-case-scenario where every single measure is approved and implemented swiftly.
However, this outcome is unlikely as even in the Republican camp, some are questioning the disastrous impact of those measures on the country's budget and indebtedness level, in a context of rising interest rates. Then because the impact of the reforms might take some time to translate into higher GDP growth.
Investors and markets are not known for their patience and might be frustrated to realise that 2017 will not be impacted that much by the Trump election.
