Shedding light on Brexit 'unknowns'

Possible outcomes examined

Is there a Westminster majority for a Brexit deal? What is Jeremy Corbyn's position? Is the Irish border too intractable a problem? These are questions to which we must answer, "We don't know."

But stopping at this could also make us slow to react tomorrow if the situation clarifies. It turns out there is actually quite a lot of information in "extra knowledge is important for investors, because financial markets are nothing if not probability-weighting mechanisms". We have built a decision tree, with branches that take us to a range of outcomes. We can then adjust which branches carry more weight when we receive new information. Ed Smith: Who is really in the driver's seat? The elusive relationship between jobs, wages and prices There are six branching points, four of...