John Godley, head of fixed income at Sarasin & Partners, explores in detail how politics, divergence, and excess are the three core themes driving global bond markets in 2015.
There are three themes - global divergences, global excesses, and politics - which are currently playing a significant role in determining whether 2015 could cede the ever-present bond bears a rare success or whether, once again, the consensus is surprised by the bond bull market continuing into its 35th year. Bringing these conflicting themes and risks together to devise a fixed income strategy is already proving a challenge. Government bond yields have already been driven lower this year. The introduction of QE in Europe, fears over European politics, and energy related falls in infl...
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