Can backward-looking volatility ever be profitable?

Just over a month ago, volatility, as measured by the VIX index was around 26%, the highest reading since the Chinese slowdown scare of last August. The FTSE 100 was plunging, reaching its nadir of 5,500 in the morning of 11 February.

Since then, the EU referendum has kicked off, adding to uncertainty, but the FTSE 100 is now 12% higher at the time of writing. The first catalyst for this has been the recovery in the oil price and this has removed much of the immediate focus on the sector and reduced global market tension. What has become very clear is there was a significant degree of market manipulation taking place. We have heard reports over 80% of the transactional activity influencing the oil price was paper-based, rather than driven by actual oil users.   The wider equity markets are increasingly manipulat...