UK property in 2016: A pause for breath or the last gasp?

Q1 slowdown

After delivering double digit total returns in 2013, 2014, and 2015, the commercial property market took an opportunity for a big breath in the first quarter of 2016.

Sentiment was not assisted by the Chancellor's changes to the stamp duty tax rules - this is a one-off event but there were straws in the wind before the Budget announcement. The latest IPF consensus forecasts indicate a lower, but still healthy, total return of 7.9% for 2016. Does this reflect a pause for breath after a strong run or herald a market correction? Like other asset classes there are conflicting messages. Wider equity market volatility at the start of the year lessened risk appetite and the EU referendum vote may lead to investors delaying investment decisions until the o...