The events of 2016 have already altered the shape of traditional distribution curves of potential political outcomes, widening the tail of unexpected outcomes and making politics increasingly relevant to financial markets, according to Allianz Global Investors' Marcus Morris-Eyton.
In 2017, a year where we have elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands in the diary, it is clear the era of heightened political uncertainty is here to stay. Investors are generally faced with two options; they can make a calculated prediction and position their portfolios accordingly in advance of a given expected outcome. An equivalent example from last year would have been buying construction stocks on the hope of a Trump victory and a corresponding fiscal stimulus package. Or they can accept that, many macro/political events are difficult to forecast with outcomes of...
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