Economic and market forecasting is always a fraught occupation, difficult and subject to behavioural biases, not least over-confidence, writes Stephen Watson.
Looking at the past few years, analysts' forecasts for earnings on both sides of the Atlantic have proven to have been over optimistic and subject to downgrades. The Chinese have a curse 'May you live in interesting times'. That is certainly the case today. The three main uncertainties facing investors and forecasters alike are the imponderables surrounding the UK's decision to Brexit and what that will mean for trade and movement of people, the impact of Trump assuming the presidency in the US and what that might mean for global trade and profitability for US corporates, and thirdl...
To continue reading this article...
Join Investment Week for free
Signup and gain exclusive members-only insights - all free of charge!
- Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
- Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
- Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
- Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
- Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes
