Will Trump's protectionist threats actually materialise?

A trade war would hurt both the US and China

The market seems to view the recent US election results as universally good for the US and equally bad for emerging markets, particularly China given discussions on the possibility of imposing tariffs or temporary surcharges on Chinese imports, writes Wells Fargo's Anthony Cragg.

The US is China's number one trade partner and vice versa. It accounted for 18% of the value of exports from China in 2015 per the China Statistical Yearbook and has ranged from a low of 16.7% to a high of 18.4% over the past eight years.  At the same time, China has markedly increased its inter-regional trade with Asia, as illustrated by a 3.7% increase in the value of exports to its neighbours from 46.4% in 2008 to 50.1% in 2015.  In addition to the US, China is the leading trade partner to seven of the world's 20 largest economies including Japan, India, Brazil, Korea, Australia, I...