Calling turning points is notoriously difficult to do

'Geopolitics finally has some risk premia'

What a difference a quarter makes. The S&P 500 had gained 5.6% in January, while markets were feverish with expectations surrounding tax reform, global growth and the bull environment continuing.

Nothing has actually changed in terms of the golden trinity of low rates, solid growth and tax reform implementation, but markets have been spooked at the prospect of trade wars.  While 2017 was the year when all geopolitical risks were essentially ignored, 2018 is proving to be the year when geopolitics finally has some risk premia assigned to it. Trump's unpredictability leaves outlook for global stability 'shaky' Combine this with a scenario in which there is no longer the safety net of Federal Reserve quantitative easing and the recent rolling over of some data, and we have a p...