'Keeping a cool head is more likely to be rewarded'

'Keep a cool head'

The escalation and unintended consequences of US President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda has probably thrown the biggest spanner in the economic works in recent weeks, possibly overtaking the threat of monetary policy change as the number one near-term risk to the global economy and market stability.

Deep political divisions in Europe and signs of tighter credit conditions impacting Chinese growth have also emerged.  The US is a brighter spot, having received a boost from corporate tax reductions. But even here, the path ahead is unclear now that inflation, influenced by a higher oil price, and wage growth, are going up. Protectionism: War and peace in the trade arena Leading economic indicators are now exhibiting signs of cooling. These early warning signals are asking questions about global economic growth which, after ten years of co-ordinated post-financial crisis stimulus,...