What could prompt a risk-off environment?

The US Treasury market has traded within its narrowest range for 40 years.

The TYVIX Index, which measures the volatility of the 10-year benchmark bond is at its lowest level since Bloomberg records began in 2003.  The low level of Treasury market volatility is another reminder (along with weaker auto and housing sales) we are in the latter stages of the business cycle. Historical experience suggests these low levels of volatility are unlikely to persist and the eventual rise in volatility will be stellar. The narrow Treasury range is highly unusual and reflects the balance of bullish and bearish expectations in the market. Investors have had to contend with...