IBOSS AM's Metcalfe: We expect US economic data to weaken sooner than many expect

Over the past few months, we have become more positive on US Treasuries.

Contrary to many, we expect US economic data to weaken sooner than many expect, led by the diminishing effect of Trump's tax and the effect of interest rate rises.  They do not have to go up very much to have a significant impact, especially on the large percentage of the population who have not benefitted from the tax cut and a decade of QE because they do not have risk assets to appreciate.  Industry Voice: Asset Allocation Outlook 2018 For evidence, we would point out the dramatic slowdown in mortgage activity, where the 30-year mortgage rate is now up to 5.1%, and falling auto ...