Lehman Brothers says one in three chance of UK recession by 2010

There is a 35% chance the UK will experience recession within the next two UK years, according to the...

There is a 35% chance the UK will experience recession within the next two UK years, according to the latest market outlook from Lehman Brothers. Chief economist for Europe Michael Hume said since the summer’s Northern Rock crisis, the group has expected knock-on effects to the real economy and the consumer stemming from turmoil in the financial markets. “The probability of a technical recession of two quarters of negative growth at some point in the next two years has risen to 35%, while the probability of an outright recession of negative year-on-year growth is around 20%,” he said. ...