Risks remain in global economy says Ward

Strengthening global money supply and increasing activity are positive signs but real economic risks persist warns Henderson's Simon Ward.

The chief economist says recent economic news is consistent with a bottom in spring 2009 and a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Ward says industrial output in the G7 major economies fell by 19% between February 2008 and March but has moved sideways in April and May reflecting a rebound in Japan and Germany, offset by a continuing slide in the US, partly reflecting auto sector woes. However, he warns there are still risks, the two most prominent being a further deterioration in the labour market and secondly a slow down in real money growth. “Labour market deterio...