UK faces 33% chance of 'double dip': Barclays Wealth

Barclays Wealth chief economist Michael Dicks believes the UK faces a one in three chance of entering a "double-dip" recession next year.

Dicks cites three factors which could prove decisive - the impact of fiscal tightening, a weaker than expected export boost and higher inflation. He believes the fiscal tightening outlined in the Budget could have a greater impact than generally expected. "Look closely at the numbers, and you see that fiscal effort will jump by more than two percentage points next year, driven largely by the in-your-face hike in VAT, but also affected by other tax changes and by cuts in Government spending and benefit payments," Dicks says. "The OBR believes that GDP growth will take the smallest o...