SIG: UK to see strong first-quarter growth after shock Q4

The first quarter of this year should see strong growth following the shock 0.5% UK GDP fall in the fourth quarter of 2010, says Rupert Watson, asset allocation strategist at Skandia Investment Group.

Estimates from the ONS revealing worse-than-expected GDP figures in Q4 have fuelled fears of a double-dip recession, although many are questioning if the bout of bad weather was reponsible. Watson says all the surveys of business activity - which usually have a strong correlation with GDP - suggest the economy continued to grow at a robust pace at the end of 2010. Similarly, the Bank of England's recent agents report supports this. As a result, Watson belives it likely bad weather conditions did dent Q4's GDP figures. He says this is similar to the cold spell in January 2010 leadin...