Investec's Lacey: Oil to spike over $150

Oil prices do not yet reflect a crisis, although the risk of political contagion across the MENA region could force the crude price up over $150 a barrel in the short term, says Mark Lacey at Investec.

The co-manager of the £297m Global Energy fund says the firm's long-term price forecasts of $100 a barrel remain unchanged, despite indications the political situation in Libya may deteriorate further. Yet he says the destabilisation of Bahrain could be more damaging. "Potentially, unrest in Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet and connected to Saudi Arabia by the King Fahd causeway, carries with it political implications for strained relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. "While unrest is still at an early stage, ‘guarantee of crude supply' could be further impacted, and we bel...