Nomura predicts the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan will cut between 0.5% and 1% off the country's GDP next quarter.
It says the natural disaster will mean the Japanese economy does not return to growth until the third quarter this year, with the worst of the impact felt between April and June. Economists Takahide Kiuchi and Kohei Okazaki say the quake could cost the Japanese economy between 0.25% -0.5% of GDP in the first quarter, and between 0.5%-1% in Q2. However, while the impact on GDP is undoubtedly negative, Nomura say it will not necessarily lead to a sharp downturn. It says: "We expect the negative impact on real GDP growth to be greatest in April-June, but we believe it is too pessimist...
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