Newton's Brain: Chance of Greek default has tripled

Newton's Paul Brain said the possibility of Greece defaulting on its debt has tripled since a bailout was first agreed, resulting in a higher risk the country could leave the euro by the end of this year.

Brain, head of fixed interest at the firm and manager of the £434m Global Dynamic Bond fund, has upped his forecast for the probability of a default from 5% to 15%, saying the figure continues to rise as newsflow reveals the discontent of the Greek electorate. "Greece needs to restructure its debt and get its borrowing costs down over a prolonged period, not only over the next two to three years. But even doing that, it will be more difficult than we first thought," he said. "The country will continue undergo growing pressures for its debt restructuring as this would go beyond a ‘volu...