Could Russian equities could go up five times from here?

Manager considers buying beleaguered stocks

Natalie Kenway
clock • 2 min read

Stuart Mitchell, fund manager, CIO and managing partner at SW Mitchell Capital, said he is "seriously considering" buying back into Russia as he predicts the country's equity market could move five times higher in the next ten to 15 years.

The manager (pictured) of the €77m SWMC European fund, as well as a number of other mandates for the group, said Russian equities were starting to experience the beginning of a bull run before this year's volatility.

Shares in Russian companies plunged in 2014, following sharp falls in the rouble and a slump in the oil price from highs of $120 a barrel.

The MICEX index fell over 17% in the first three months of that year, and while it recovered some of those gains later, it still posted a loss of 7.1% for 2014.

However, Russian equities picked up in 2015, reaching a seven-year high in November following a temporary improvement in the country's relations with the West.

The MICEX rose 26% in 2015 and year to date the index is down 2.5%, less than many of its Western counterparts, despite turbulent markets.

S.W. Mitchell makes foray into US with European alternatives strategy

Mitchell told Investment Week in December: "We have seen a bull market in Russia over the past three to four months, and I think it could go up five times over the next ten to 15 years.

"We have to imagine the oil price will be higher in five years and the rouble is going back up and will become investable again. Stocks are cheap again, we are thinking seriously about buying there."

In Europe, he is favouring domestic-facing companies trading below long-term averages, and has about 60% of his portfolios in this area.

"We also have 20% in banks at the quality end, including BNP Paribas and Lloyds, and 15% in telecoms - the stocks are still down 90% since 2000. We hold Telecom Italia, Orange and Deutsche Telecom."

Mitchell added he is moving positions further out from Berlin, and while he has zero direct exposure to Ireland, Greece and Portugal, he holds some Italian companies - 6% in Amadeus, and 5% to 6% in Taso San Paulo.

"Europe is the least of the world's concerns. It is in the early stages of recovery, which will take two to four years. The region will continue to gather momentum," he said.

Mitchell also warned the US markets hold the "biggest risks", closely followed by the UK.

"The US is increasingly difficult to judge. There is a broad spectrum of things doing well and things not doing so well."

His colleague, Brian Cullen, manager of the SWMC UK fund, added: "The UK is another area to worry about. Two to three years ago the UK was growing faster than its peers but now that has been flipped around. It has an obscene trade deficit. Sterling has done very well but we could see that reversed.

"We do not believe there will be a Brexit but there will be volatility in the lead-up to the referendum."

Over the year to 14 January, the SWMC European fund returned 0.02% compared to a loss of 0.9% from its benchmark, the FTSE Europe, according to FE Trustnet.

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