Is optimism for EM equities justified?

Since the turn of the year, Asian and emerging market (EM) equities in general have performed strongly and remain above the highs reached in Q4 of last year. Investors appear to have become more optimistic about the growth prospects for EM equities, but is this justified? And, if so, what comes next?

EM equities sold off significantly at the end of last year; the MSCI EM index fell -7% in US dollar terms.  But what we have seen since the beginning of the year is a significant rebound in equity pricing and in addition, in the early part of 2017, the US dollar has exhibited some modest weakness, with the trade-weighted index currently 2% off its December peak.  Together with an ‘uber-gradual' Fed, the expected tightening in financial conditions may only be mild. This would be manageable for most EMs. When we look back over the past ten years, EM equities have delivered an annuali...