Is it make or break for the global economy?

It is now generally accepted the global economy has exited recession and the recovery began around mid-year.

As ever, a global perspective hides a multitude of different underlying trends, for example, in South Korea the level of industrial production was back to near its all time peak in July (+50% p.a. rate YTD) even as in the same month US industrial production was finally turning positive (but still -12% year-on-year). For those countries where the recovery began much earlier, principally in Asia, there is little doubt the pace of expansion will begin to moderate from the earlier breakneck pace, if it has not already started to do so. Chinese GDP, for example, grew at a 16% + p.a. rate i...