Collings' Corner: The Great Paradox of China

COLLINGS' CORNER

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"The market is always right" is perhaps the most frequently used mantra among investors. It is not surprising, given the humbling experience of getting a market wrong.

However, I would argue the market is generally ‘right’ only in the long term. In the short term the market can be very wrong, often. Examples of the irrational exuberance in the months preceding the sub-prime blow-up and a total capitulation in Q4, 2008 are just two recent examples of a market that got it wrong. There is also a more current example of paradoxical investor behaviour – China. The post sub-prime global market rebound was attributable mainly to two factors – the unprecedented liquidity on the back of the global QE, and the Chinese stimulus package. China continued to pr...

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