When the mood music is over

Data showing UK inflation has exceeded its required range for 40 of the last 49 months might suggest our home market is perking up.

After all, a degree of inflation suggests growth, and we are very much in need of that. The Bank of England insists it has the inflation monster fully under control, so we have nothing to fear. But as those Wiki-diplomats might say: we hope for the best but prepare for the worst. As any veteran of Latin American markets will attest, once inflation gets its hooks into an economy, it is very, very difficult to get rid of. The red line is 3.5%. After that, the next marker is double figures, at which point it is game over. Business confidence indices are rising, and many analysts are con...