Ward: The odds have shortened on a March rate hike

ODDS SHORTEN ON MARCH RATE HIKE

Henderson's chief economist Simon Ward explains why the minutes of the last MPC meeting point to an interest rate rise in the next two weeks.

The February MPC minutes suggest the Bank rate will rise in two weeks' time if revised fourth quarter GDP figures and purchasing managers' or consumer surveys for February indicate economic recovery is continuing. The minutes reveal Bank of England chief economist Spencer Dale joined Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for an interest rate hike this month. This is no surprise given his role in preparing the Inflation Report forecast, which signals a need for immediate tightening. Adam Posen maintained his dissent in favour of a £50bn expansion of QE. The 'MPC-ometer' model f...