Risk, gold, and Japan - three contrarian calls

CONTRARIAN

More optimistic equity markets always make for more interesting conversations. Instead of all those miserable end of the world confessions over coffee - "how much cash do you have in your portfolios?" - more bullish markets tend to spark off new ideas and even the odd mania or two.

At the moment, the consensus is coalescing around a number of key ‘trades’. The first is we are in a more optimistic, risk environment, which in turn favours developed world equities, and especially US shares. Bonds, by contrast, are generally marking time, waiting for the next big ‘macro’ event. Finally, emerging markets are under the cosh, largely because the dominant BRIC markets are viewed as unreliable, although there is a subtle shift underway to increase Asian exposures across the board. Yet when I do manage to track down the more adventurous or contrarian portfolio managers ou...