We have all been trained over the last decade to think of ‘black swans' as overwhelmingly negative events, ie that unexpected news is necessarily bad.
But what happens if surprisingly good news emerges, with a positive impact? The particular black swan I have in mind relates to the oil price – and the small but not necessarily remote chance oil prices could fall back to $50 a barrel. A recent FT column on the subject of (likely higher) energy prices invited one hedge fund manager to send me a brilliant chart which tracks the real price of gold versus oil since 1900. What is astonishing – email me and I will happily send the chart to you – is how close this relationship is, suggesting the sudden downturn in the real price of gold co...
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