Six US rate hikes and $75 oil? Five 'realistic' surprise 2017 predictions

Outlook for the year ahead

In January 2016, after the Fed had just raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade, J.P. Morgan Asset Management's global head of fixed income Bob Michele tried to think of some believable surprises for the year ahead - outcomes that seemed highly unlikely at the time, but might well come to pass.

As it turned out, with at least one prediction he proved unexpectedly prescient. Despite all signs in early 2016 pointing to higher treasury yields, Michele was highly sceptical given the lack of inflation and growth on the horizon. He predicted US 10-yr yields were going below 1.5%, which of course they did before the bond market reversal in mid-July of this year. What will Michele prove to be right about this year? Below he outlines his 2017 realistic surprise predictions: The Federal Reserve raises rates six times in 2017 "I really think that the Fed will hike every other meeting ...