Ten potential market surprises for Japan in 2018

Jesper Koll, head of Japan at WisdomTree, takes a closer look at the 'outlier scenarios' he worries could have large investment implications.

It is that time of year when economists and strategists present their forecasts for the year ahead. Quantitative forecasts are based on probability models that cannot help but assume the future will be correlated to the past, and qualitative scenarios are based on, well, a combination of experience and common sense. Either way, most methodologies it would seem leave little room for discussion of true outliers and surprises. This article attempts to address this deficiency. Here are the outlier scenarios that I personally worry could have large Japan investment implications. By definition...