Mundy's Moments: What can history tell us about where bond yields are heading?

Analysis of bond market movements

In general, and I speak from bitter experience, it is not much fun being early on a trade - even if that trade is ultimately successful, writes Investec AM's Alastair Mundy.

The dreaded career risk dictates it is better to go with the flow and either go off the edge with everyone else ('performance while disappointing was in-line with peers') or time an exit to perfection.  It is likely many hoping to execute the latter find themselves doing the former. This may be particularly relevant currently with bond yields so low and so many investors expecting them to rise. These investors claim to have shortened duration - by selling to central banks and pension funds - but if they are planning to shorten duration further it is unclear who the next supplier of li...