Why 2018 is the most important year of the past - and coming - 35 years

Most forecasts for the year ahead are not taken seriously, perhaps with good reason, writes Raphael Pitoun (pictured), CIO of Seilern Investment Management.

The track record of such forecasts and their predictive power are indeed historically poor. This year's crop appeared no different. Invariably, there is the temptation for market participants to talk their own book to attract publicity suited to their own trading interests and styles of investing.  Predicting stock market indices, for instance, is at best guesswork given the dependence on dozens of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.  End of an era? Perhaps a more modest ambition is to try and ask the right questions. In my view, most issues in the capital markets are predicated...