UK monetary trends are showing signs of recovery but remain weak, arguing against the rate hike that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to deliver this week.
As usual, the focus here is on "non-financial" broad (M4) and narrow (M1) monetary aggregates, comprising money holdings of households and private non-financial businesses. The Bank of England's M4ex measure additionally includes money held by non-bank financial corporations (excluding intermediaries) but such holdings are volatile and uninformative about future spending on goods and services. Annual non-financial M4 growth was 3.1% in June, which compares with a recent low of 3.0% in April and a peak of 6.8% in September 2016. SocGen's Edwards: Carney has taken BoE monetary policy...
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