Deutsche Bank: UK economy will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024

‘Recessionary orbit’

UK economic growth is expected to remain weak for the foreseeable future, with Deutsche Bank analysts forecasting GDP will not return to pre-Covid levels until 2024.

Senior economist Sanjay Raja wrote that since the bank's last growth update, the "UK economic outlook has weakened further". He said that the UK was now in a "recessionary orbit" and growth was "likely to remain subdued" for the majority of the next year and beyond. The bank forecasted that UK GDP would slow from 4.5% this year to negative 0.5% next year, before rebounding to 1% in 2024 and 1.25% around 2025. Outside the long-term, Deutsche said it had identified three "key factors" that had "meaningfully altered our forecasts into Q4 2022". First, it said the UK's fiscal policy...