Corporate defaults to rise as access to capital deteriorates following banking turmoil

Janus Henderson Credit Risk Monitor Q1

Corporate defaults are set to rise even in a soft-landing scenario as access to capital deteriorates following the banking crisis, while earning cashflows remain at risk from recession, according to Janus Henderson Investors’ Credit Risk Monitor.

The monitor, which tracks key indicators impacting credit portfolios using a traffic light system, found that all three traffic lights monitored - ‘cashflow and earnings', ‘debt loads and servicing' and ‘access to capital markets' - have remained "flashing red" in Q1.  The credit cycle has and will continue to move lower over the coming months, with further volatility in credit spreads, the firm said. In this scenario, security selection will "remain critical" as defaults start to rise, it added. JPMAM's Ward: Banking turmoil will lead to further tightening of lending standards "Re...