Deutsche Bank maintains US recession forecast

Still ahead of the consensus

Deutsche Bank has forecast an earlier and milder recession for the US, doubling down on its outlook for the world's largest economy.

In a research note published today (5 June), Jim Reid, head of global economics and thematic research, and David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist global head of research, said the US was "on track for its first genuine policy-led boom-bust cycle in four decades". They said this had been brought on by the "significant increase in the money supply over 2020-21", which was rolled out in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The end of US inflation but the start of growth concerns The US government's fiscal spending in the period totalled about $5trn and, according to Reid and Folkerts...