Odey's Tim Bond: Coronavirus optimism is reminiscent of the Global Financial Crisis

Investors and policymakers not prepared for Covid-19 economic damage

We have been here before. Just as economists failed to sufficiently downgrade forecasts on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis, they are making the same mistake with the coronavirus's impact on the Chinese economy and beyond.

Economists' estimates for Chinese Q1 GDP are slowly coming down, but they remain optimistic. In Bloomberg's compilation of forecasts, Goldman Sachs has the lowest at 2.5% year-on-year for Q1, down from their earlier forecast of 4%. The forecast implies a 1.6% drop in GDP from Q4. Warren Buffett: Coronavirus should not affect long-term investors Assuming that Goldman's are working on a three-week interlude in which the economy is severely impacted by the virus - which is the absolute minimum one can assume, because it has already happened - then their forecast implies that GDP drops by...