Too early to 'flash the V' for V-shaped recovery sign

Vaccine must arrive before economic scarring

Our current recession already is the deepest since World War II in many countries. Yet, perhaps because of the huge and rapid policy response both on the fiscal and monetary fronts, it is remarkable how quickly people have become optimistic about the prospects for the global economy.

The consensus among economic forecasters is that the global economy will contract by more than 4% in 2020. At the same time, forecasters see economic growth rebounding to the tune of 5.1% in 2021. Investors appear to be similarly sanguine about the path to recovery given that the S&P 500 is now only about 11% off its February peak. The question, of course, is whether the so-called V-shaped recovery underlying the market rebound is predicated on sound analysis or on wishful thinking.  In attempting to answer that question, I must concede that during my career, I have never been s...