Markets and politics: Which leads and follows?

Taking historic parallels with a grain of salt

This year has been extraordinary in ways most of us could not have fathomed. Amid ongoing volatility, interest in the next Presidential Election and the implications on the market has increased exponentially as we approach election day.

While the outcome remains uncertain, history does reveal some interesting trends, and it is worth comparing market performance during election years of past presidencies to understand the interplay between politics and the market. 'Something quite major is happening here': Carmignac prepares for US election fallout Looking at the performance of the S&P 500 index during President Donald Trump's tenure, US equities have reached tremendous heights. Even despite the incomparable social and economic upheaval brought on by Covid-19, the S&P 500 hit a new equity market high in August sign...