Editor's letter: Mixed signals in markets

72.4% likelihood of a rate rise in December

On the UK macroeconomic front, the rhetoric over the past few months has centred on inflation as energy prices have rocketed, supply chains have hit bottlenecks and developed market central banks have begun to tentatively take away the Covid-19 crisis punchbowl.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that, over 12 months to the end of August, the Consumer Price Index has risen by 3% compared to a 2.1% rise over the same time period to the end of July. This 90 basis points increase marks the largest ever uptick recorded in the CPIH National Statistic 12-month inflation rate series, which first came to fruition in January 2006. And, if inflation continues to rise, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has already suggested the bank will step in and hike rates before the year end. As can be seen on page five of this week's...