Stronger-than-expected employment data raises possibility of a UK rate hike

Vacancies hit high of 1.17m

The Bank of England MPC meeting raised eyebrows and furrowed brows in equal measure, as members voted 7-2 to keep UK base rates unchanged at just 0.1% (as they have been since March 2020). The committee also voted 6-3 to leave the existing asset purchase scheme unadjusted for the time being.

Expectations for a rate hike had reached fever pitch walking into the meeting, so it was no surprise to see markets deflate a little when the result did not turn out as expected. Andrew Bailey, the governor of the BoE, made it clear in his press conference that the primary reason for inaction was the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the UK labour market, so naturally all eyes turned to the 16 November jobs data to reveal which way the vote is likely to go in December. October's numbers are now in and show that the job market went from strength to strength in the first ful...