The fog of war: Lasting implications of Russia-Ukraine conflict

Clouds on horizon

Investors struggling to understand the full implications of war between Russia and Ukraine would do well to pay attention to the famous words from Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian military analyst.

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth". How to seek out the truth? Analysts are giving polar opposite views. One well-known European fund manager bemoans the flows out of his markets when he sees considerable value appearing. Another well-known commentator argues that it is best to proceed on the assumption that this is a short-term rally in a bear market. Markets are volati...